Phoenix earns perfect score for likely electoral hijinks

Maricopa County is one of three of the most at risk counties in the nation for potential election interference. For those familiar with the recent hijinks around Arizona elections, that shouldn’t surprise you. But researchers at the Voting Rights Lab crunched the data and moved beyond anecdote, putting a number to it. 

They developed the 2026 Election Risk Heat Map, which identifies counties nationwide at risk of what they described as “manipulation of election outcomes.” Only three counties nationwide scored 100, the highest possible score, on the organization’s heat map. Maricopa County was one of only three. The other two were Georgia’s Fulton and Forsyth counties. 

“The votes of Maricopa County residents are highly consequential,” said Victoria Lopez, the executive director of the ACLU of Arizona, in an interview with Phoenix New Times. “There are risks and threats to voters being able to exercise their right to cast their ballot.” 

These findings are not academic. Maricopa County is a municipal empire, the fourth-largest in the country. And only Los Angeles and Chicago’s Cook County, have a higher voter turnout in the nation than Maricopa County, with just over two million voters. 

The organization ranked counties nationwide to discover their election risk on several factors, including race competitiveness, volume of candidates and election officials who are election deniers, the frequency and volume of election-related litigation, the percentage of voters who vote by mail, how long it takes election officials to count ballots, number of state anti-democracy groups and the existence of local agreements with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

If you’ve been following Arizona’s election landscape over the last six years, those factors can only signal trouble for Maricopa County. 

“We’ve seen great political pressure put on Maricopa County and put on Arizona in the past,” Lopez said. “We’ve seen this playbook of election denialism in Arizona, and its horrible impacts are undermining voter confidence, undermining systems of election administration.”

Maricopa County has already had its fair share of election mishaps in the months leading up to Election Day.

Earlier this year, County Recorder Justin Heap used the federal SAVE database to flag 60 voters as potential non-citizens. After an investigation, County Attorney Rachell Mitchell found that only eight were non-citizens, but Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes had to sue Heap after he refused to restore the registration status of 24 citizen voters. They were restored in late October through court mediation. 

And that’s just one example. Runbeck Election Services accidentally mailed more than 3,000 ballots early. The Recorder’s phone line briefly broadcast the incorrect Election Day date to voters. Heap claimed the Phoenix USPS processing facility was shut down and ballots were rerouted through San Diego. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and USPS disputed that claim. The ACLU of Arizona claimed poll workers at a vote center told voters they needed ID to drop off ballots, a claim Heap called baseless. The Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center was briefly locked down because of suspicious activity nearby. 

As a result of this chicanery, the lab labeled the county “extreme risk” on its election index. Maricopa County scored a five out of five on its “local election denial risk,” with several election deniers running for top offices, including governor and one leading the county’s Recorder’s office. With lawsuits like CyberNinjas and anything involving Kari Lake, the county also got a perfect score in the lab’s “election litigation environment” index, which labeled the county as at risk for “high litigation activity.” 

The county has a formal relationship with ICE through its jail system; nearly 84% of voters cast ballots by mail in 2022 and it took election officials nearly 121 hours to count 95% of ballots in 2024, according to the lab.

The ACLU of Arizona said it is well aware of this risk and is targeting the county with a $400,000 ad buy to boost voter confidence a little more than a week before the election. The organization aims to remind local election officials and employees who might try to undermine the election that the organization is watching and ready to act. 

The civil rights organization has been preparing for threats with coalition partners, sharing information with voters and monitoring elected officials. On Election Day, the organization is prepared to address election administration issues that may arise, including polling locations not opening on time or closing too early. It has also been monitoring signature verification issues and any “unlawful purge of voters,” Lopez said. 

The campaign — which reads “Arizona voters, not politicians, decide elections” — includes online ad buys, highway billboards, LED billboard trucks and aerial banners pulled by small planes, including one that flew over Arizona State University’s football game against Kansas on Saturday. The ads are also located in downtown Phoenix near the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors building and the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center. 

“We wanted to make sure that Arizonans have clear, accurate information about their right to vote,” Lopez said. “And that elected officials and people who are in a position to administer our elections know that the ACLU of Arizona is watching and making sure that they comply with the law.” clear, accurate information about their right to vote,” Lopez said. “And that elected officials and people who are in a position to administer our elections know that the ACLU of Arizona is watching and making sure that they comply with the law.”