Here’s what you should expect on Arizona’s 2026 election night

PHOENIX — Arizona is heading into midterm election day with 4.37 million actively registered voters eligible to cast a ballot — and more than 1.6 million already have.

The largest group of registered voters belongs to neither major party, making up almost 35% of the electorate.

Republicans are the second-largest bloc, with only a few thousand fewer registrations than unaffiliated voters. Compared to the last midterm in 2022, Arizona has 230,000 more registered voters overall — including 120,000 more unaffiliated voters and 90,000 more Republicans.

Democrats, however, have 31,000 fewer registered voters than in 2022.

Historically, between half and two-thirds of registered voters actually cast a ballot. The 1.6 million early votes already counted represent more than half of the total turnout expected.

Elections analyst and Goodyear City Councilman Trey Terry said the early vote composition closely mirrors 2022.

FULL COVERAGE: Arizona’s 2026 midterm election

“The early votes that have come in so far, as far as turnout level goes, mirrors 2022 almost precisely,” Terry said. “Republicans have turned out a little bit more in early ballots than they did in 2022. However, you have to remember in 2022, Republican Party leadership at the time — they were telling their own voters not to vote early.”

Terry said the key question is what happens on election day itself.

In 2022, Republicans turned out in force on election day. If that happens again, their night could look better than some forecasts suggest. If it does not, Democrats are heading into election day well positioned.

Polls and results timeline

Polls open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. Voters who are in line by 7 p.m. can still cast their ballot.

First results are expected around 8 p.m. and will include most, if not all, early ballots received through the weekend. The count then shifts to election day voters, and counties continue counting until every ballot is tallied — a process that can stretch late into the night.

Track Arizona’s election results here.

In the days following the election, remaining early ballots are counted first, followed by those dropped off on election day. Depending on volume, that process can take additional time.

Terry said he does not expect an extended wait for results.

“Realistically think we’ll be waiting maybe a day or two at most for the closest races,” Terry said.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.